Factfulness
by Hans Rosling
Notes
- Gap Instinct
- tendency to divide things into two distinct and often conflicting groups with an imagined gap between them
- liberals vs. republicans, us vs. them, etc.
- beware when gap is mentioned and keep in mind that majority usually lies in the middle
- don’t compare averages, consider the spread as well
- beware when extremes are being compared
- Negativity Instinct
- tendency to notice the bad more than the good
- distinguish better and bad, think can be bad but getting better
- good news == no news, good news are often not being reported
- gradual improvement == no news, gradual improvement is often not reported
- Straight Line Instinct
- tendency to assume that a line will just continue straight and ignoring that such lines are rare in reality.
- also expanded in the book Growth by Vaclav Smil, growth curves usually follow the S shape
- Fear Instinct
- tendency to pay more attention to frightening things
- that’s why people prefer news about mass shootings, murders, and other misfortune while ignore positive development
- risk = danger * exposure
- Size Instinct
- tendency to get things out of proportion, or misjudge the size of things
- e.g. irrational feat of immigrants while the actual numbers are low, ties into the Feat Instinct
- always search for the context of the numbers, single numbers on their own are often misleading
- amounts and rates often tell very different stories
- Generalization Instinct
- tendency to mistakenly group together things, people, or countries that are actually very different
- look for differencies within groups, look for similarities across groups
- majority can mean anything from 51% to 99%
- vivis images are easy to recall but they might be exception, no the rule
- Destiny Instinct
- idea that innate characteristics determine the destinies of people, countries, religions, or cultures
- tendency to think that things are as they are because of inescapable reasons
- keep track of gradual improvements, update your knowledge
- if you need a reminder of how things were, talk to your grandpa
- Single Perspective
- tendency to focus on a single cause or perspective when it comes to understanding the world
- e.g. forming our worldview by relying on the media or our social bubble
- test your ideas, limit assumption of your experise and be humble
- Hammer and nails - if you are good with a tool, you might be prone to overuse it, not one tool is good for everything
- beware of simple ideas and simple solutions, world is never simple
- Blame Instinct
- tendency to find a clear, simple reason for why something bad has happened
- look for causes, not villains
- look for systems, not heroes
- Urgency Instinct
- tendency to take immediate action in the face of perceived imminent danger, and in doing so, amplifying our other instincts
- used often in marketing
- take a breath and time, don’t rush your decisions, evaluate
- insist on the data
- beware of predictions, future is uncertain ("this stock can’t go tits up")